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Ilustração retangular dividida verticalmente em duas metades representando a dualidade entre o pensamento humano e a inteligência artificial. Do lado esquerdo, uma silhueta de cabeça humana preenchida com engrenagens, labirintos e símbolos de tomada de decisão, em tons quentes de laranja e amarelo, evocando criatividade e reflexão. Do lado direito, uma representação estilizada de um cérebro digital com fluxos de dados, códigos binários e circuitos em cores frias de azul e roxo, simbolizando a tecnologia e a precisão da inteligência artificial. No centro, uma transição suave mescla os elementos, reforçando a integração entre os dois mundos. O fundo inclui padrões abstratos de redes neurais e ondas cerebrais, enfatizando o tema da cognição e do diálogo entre sistemas.

The Enhanced Reflection of ChatGPT o1 and Human Thought: A New Perspective on Decision and Technology

Days ago, I listed HERE a series of characteristics of the o1 version of ChatGPT with the aim of drawing a parallel with the human decision-making process, especially as described by Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. However, I have now decided to write a more essay-like text on the subject.


Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly present in our daily lives, influencing everything from internet searches to virtual assistants on our devices. The latest evolution in this field is ChatGPT o1, an enhanced version of OpenAI’s language model, which stands out for “reflecting” more deeply before responding. This feature not only improves the quality of interactions but also allows us to draw interesting parallels with the human decision-making process, especially as described by Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow”.

Kahneman, awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, explores how our mind operates through two systems: System 1, which is fast, automatic, and intuitive, and System 2, which is slower, deliberative, and analytical. While System 1 allows us to react instantly to stimuli, it is in System 2 that deep reflection occurs, essential for complex and rational decisions.

ChatGPT o1 seems to incorporate this dynamic. By “reflecting” more before generating responses, the model is, in a certain way, engaging in a process similar to the human System 2. This results in more precise, contextualized, and useful answers, avoiding pitfalls that previous models, operating more automatically, could face.

This comparison raises important questions about how we interact with technology and how AI can be designed to complement our cognitive processes. If AI models can be developed to reflect more deeply, they can assist in making complex decisions, offering more balanced analyses and mitigating common biases.

However, it is crucial to recognize the fundamental differences between human thought and computational processing. While our mind is influenced by emotions, personal experiences, and social contexts, AI operates based on algorithms and data patterns. Therefore, although ChatGPT o1 can simulate a process of reflection, it does not possess consciousness or genuine understanding.

This distinction does not diminish the potential of AI but highlights the importance of using it as a tool that complements, not replaces, human judgment. Models like ChatGPT o1 can help us see beyond our own biases, offering additional perspectives and relevant information that enrich our ability to make informed decisions.

Moreover, the incorporation of more “reflective” processes in AI invites us to reconsider how we develop these technologies. The emphasis should not be only on speed and efficiency but also on the quality and depth of responses. This is particularly relevant in sensitive areas such as health, finance, and education, where informed decisions are crucial.

In summary, the advancement represented by ChatGPT o1 is a significant step in the evolution of artificial intelligence. By bringing machine processing closer to our own way of thinking, a world of possibilities opens up for collaboration between humans and AI. However, it is up to us to ensure that this technology is developed and used ethically, responsibly, and aligned with human values.

Reflection is not just a cognitive function but also an invitation to critical awareness. Perhaps, by observing “reflection” in the machine, we may be inspired to deepen our own, recognizing that in an increasingly complex world, thinking slowly may be the key to better and wiser decisions.


Deoclécio Paiva de Castro

Ph.D student in Economics
M.Sc in Mathematical Optimization Modeling and Quantitative Methods
B.Sc in Industrial/Production Engineer

analise de sentimento nas eleições de fortaleza Sarto Evandro Leitão andre fernandes Eduardo Girão geroge lima

Artificial Intelligence in Electoral Analysis: Media Sentiment in Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

In recent years, technology has been transforming the way we analyze data and make decisions, especially in areas like politics and electoral campaigns. Although this project is recent, it is the result of a long journey that I have been building for years, working with social networkselectoral campaigns, and government. From 2008 to 2016, I participated in successful campaigns in Ceará, including Fortaleza, and helped create strategies that were already beginning to consider the influence of the internet on politics. The analysis of “sentiment” on social networks, which at the time required considerable manual effort, was a pioneering practice in which I had the privilege to work. Today, I am applying this experience with a more technological and strategic approach through artificial intelligence. We conducted an Electoral Sentiment Analysis with AI.

This personal project is a direct evolution of that experience. It arose from my academic interest in using internet data to identify decision-makers’ preferences, applying these insights in game theory models. Sentiment analysis of electoral news was a natural step within this context, and by focusing on the 2024 Fortaleza elections, we were able to generate a detailed report on how the main candidates were perceived throughout the campaign.


From Idea to Implementation

The conception of this project is deeply rooted in my journey with political campaigns and social media management. Back in 2010, when I began working more intensively on using the internet for campaigns, sentiment analysis was done manually, with teams analyzing each content to understand how messages resonated. This experience taught me the value of understanding the audience and adjusting strategies based on real data.

Today, with artificial intelligence, the process has evolved, becoming more agile and precise. The idea of using AI to monitor sentiment is not just technological but also strategic. Campaigns change rapidly, and having a tool that allows real-time adaptation to changes in voter perception is a competitive advantage. Seeing AI automatically classify mentions of candidates as positive, negative, or neutral was the result of a vision I’ve been cultivating for a long time.


Sentiment Analysis and Academic Applications

My academic motivation has always been to better understand how data can reveal decision-makers’ preferencesGame theory, in which I am deeply interested, can be enriched by these analyses of data extracted from the internet. With the monitoring of real-time sentiments, we can predict behaviors, map future scenarios, and create more accurate models to understand how individuals and groups make decisions.

The sentiment analysis project for the Fortaleza elections is a clear example of how these concepts can be applied. Utilizing AI, we analyzed more than 1,132 news articles, collected from 56 media outlets, and identified how the candidates were perceived over time. The mentions were classified as positive, neutral, or negative, allowing deep insights to be generated from the data.

*Sorry about graphs in Portuguese

This pie chart illustrates the percentage division of mentions for each candidate. Capitão Wagner and Evandro Leitãowere the candidates with the highest presence on news portals, representing over 22% each. On the other hand, Eduardo Girão and George Lima had less prominence, with significantly lower percentages, indicating less media exposure. Sarto had only 13.07% of space on news portals.
This graph shows the number of news articles published by different media outlets. The website of Grupo O Povo was the one that published the most about the candidates, followed by Diário do NordesteGCmais, and Grupo Globo. This highlights which media outlets had the most participation in the election coverage, which can influence public perception of the candidates.

The Generated Report: A Portrait of the Elections in Fortaleza

The report generated by the project provided a clear view of how the candidates were perceived during the campaign. Mentions of Evandro Leitão and Capitão Wagner showed a predominance of positive perceptions, while candidates like Eduardo Girão faced a greater amount of negative mentions.

Furthermore, most mentions were classified as neutral, reflecting the informative nature of the news. However, the fluctuations between positive and negative sentiment helped show how specific campaign events directly influenced public perception. This type of analysis allows campaigns to adjust their strategies in real-time, according to the evolution of media coverage.


This graph presents the distribution of sentiments among positive, neutral, and negative for each candidate. The majority of mentions for all candidates are neutral, reinforcing the impartiality of informative news, such as coverage of agendas and electoral polls. The highlight here is that even with a large proportion of neutral mentions, negative sentiment is also notable in candidates like André Fernandes and Eduardo Girão.

This graph shows the proportion of positive and negative mentions for each candidate, excluding neutral mentions. We can observe that candidates like Evandro Leitão and Capitão Wagner had a higher percentage of positive mentions compared to candidates like Eduardo Girão and George Lima, who had a larger share of negative mentions. This may indicate how the media evaluates the performance or speeches of these candidates during the campaign.

Cumulative sentiment over time for candidate Evandro Leitão.

Cumulative sentiment over time for candidate André Fernandes.

Cumulative sentiment over time for candidate José Sarto.

The cumulative sentiment over time offers a detailed view of how candidates’ perceptions changed during the electoral campaign, highlighting the moments that led Evandro Leitão and André Fernandes to the second round and the fall of the current mayor, José Sarto, who failed to get re-elected. Evandro Leitão stood out with a clear trend of growth in positive sentiment. From the end of August, there was a steady rise until early October, indicating continuous positive response from the media and the public, which consistently consolidated his image throughout the campaign. André Fernandes, on the other hand, showed moderate fluctuations at the beginning of the race, with a sharp drop in cumulative sentiment in mid-September. However, he managed to recover in early October, with a slight increase in positive mentions, demonstrating a resilient campaign that overcame challenges in the final weeks. As for José Sarto, he showed a relatively stable sentiment until the end of September, when there was a significant negative shift starting on the 27th. This sharp decline may have been the result of more critical coverage, and the accumulated positive sentiment remained low, reflecting the difficulties his campaign faced in the final weeks.

The study considered the period between August 6 and October 5, 2024, covering the most intense weeks of the electoral campaign up to the final phase before the election. During this time, the public and media perception of the main candidates for the Mayor of Fortaleza was monitored, with sentiment analysis extracted from 1,132 news articlespublished in 56 media outlets.


Sentiment Analysis with AI: A System of Global Application

O que mais me entusiasma é que este projeto, embora focado nas eleições de Fortaleza, pode ser aplicado em diferentes What excites me most is that this project, although focused on the elections in Fortaleza, can be applied in different contexts and industries. The system we developed is capable of analyzing data on any subject, whether a political campaign or a brand’s reputation in the market. Companies can use this technology to monitor the public perception of their products or services, while public agencies can track how policies are being received.

The ability to monitor data in real-time, in different languages and markets, makes this system a tool of great strategic value for any organization that needs accurate and immediate insights about what is being said in its area of operation.

It is essential to emphasize that, despite the power of AI, it does not replace human work. Artificial intelligence is a tool that amplifies our analytical capacity, but it is still human critical thinking and creativity that provide the necessary context to transform this data into strategic actions.

This project is proof that technology can be an indispensable ally, but it is human work that gives meaning to data and transforms insights into concrete results. In the electoral field, or any other sector, the balance between technology and human intelligence will be the key to success.

Throughout this process, I also needed to reflect on the ethical issues involving data monitoring. Although we are dealing with public data and news sources, it is important to consider the impact that monitoring can have. Privacy and transparency are issues that are always present when we use AI for sentiment analysis. And in times of fake news and post-truth, the use of AI to detect patterns of misinformation is an increasing necessity.

In this project, we sought to ensure that all analyses were done ethically, and that the focus was on quality public data. Thus, the project not only provides valuable insights for political strategy but also acts transparently and responsibly in its use of data.

Finally…

This project reflects not only my academic interest in data and strategic decision-making, but also my years of experience working with electoral campaignssocial networks, and government. The generated report provides a detailed view of how the candidates in Fortaleza were perceived over time, and I believe this technology has an essential role in the future of data analysis.

Furthermore, the application of this technology goes far beyond elections. Whether in the political field, the corporate market, or the public sector, sentiment analysis and real-time data monitoring offer valuable insights for any organization that needs to adjust its strategies based on public perceptions.

If you want to know more about this project, access the full report, or how this technology can be applied in other contexts, get in touch. This is just the beginning of a path that I believe has much more to offer!


Deoclécio Paiva de Castro

Ph.D student in Economics
M.Sc in Mathematical Optimization Modeling and Quantitative Methods
B.Sc in Industrial/Production Engineer

circulo da mediocridade

The Circle of Mediocrity: How Conformism and Superficiality Are Weakening Institutions and Society

In recent years, I’ve been observing a phenomenon that, although subtle, has had profound consequences across various spheres of our society: the Circle of Mediocrity. This concept, which I developed throughout my professional experience with digital communication and politics, describes a vicious cycle of stagnation permeating institutions, companies, and society as a whole. It’s a dynamic where mediocrity is not only tolerated but encouraged and perpetuated by systems that inherently resist innovation and competence.

The Circle of Mediocrity forms when mediocre behaviors, ideas, and structures are maintained through negative incentives like conformism, self-preservation, and fear of change. Initiatives that could break this stagnation are often seen as threats to the status quo, and those who advocate for them end up marginalized or silenced. As I often say, “those who excel don’t become inspirations; they become targets,” a phrase that illustrates the suppression of individuals seeking to break this cycle. The cycle perpetuates itself, and institutions, instead of striving for excellence, deepen into a spiral of superficiality and inefficiency.

Superficiality in Politics and the Rise of Spectacle

One of the clearest examples of the Circle of Mediocrity is found in contemporary politics. A few years ago, especially with the advent of social networks, it was expected that these digital platforms would revolutionize how governments interact with their citizens. The promise was that networks would open space for more democratic, transparent, and proactive participation. However, what we witnessed was the opposite phenomenon: politics transformed into a spectacle, with candidates more concerned about garnering likes and views than presenting concrete solutions to societal problems.

This transformation of politics into spectacle resembles Guy Debord’s concept in his work The Society of the Spectacle, which warns about the transformation of social relations into mere representations. Politics, much like entertainment, becomes a performance where content is secondary. This shift from essence to appearance feeds the Circle of Mediocritybecause it reduces the quality of debates and proposals in favor of slogans and images that go viral.

Political campaigns have become crude and empty, filled with populist slogans and personal attacks instead of serious and profound debates. Superficiality has taken over the electoral scene, and candidates seem more like they’re competing for entertainment slots than for positions of leadership and responsibility. The consequence is that elected officials, instead of proposing transformative public policies, continue spinning in the Circle of Mediocrity, conducting their mandates reactively, without real leadership or long-term vision.

Education: The Factory of Stagnation

The Circle of Mediocrity is also evident in the educational system. From teachers who pretend to teach, to students who pretend to learn, to administrators who pretend to supervise, the cycle of mediocrity establishes itself in all spheres of education. Educational institutions are often more concerned with maintaining an appearance of normality and continuity than promoting structural changes that genuinely improve the quality of education.

This dynamic results in an uneducated society lacking critical capacity, where superficiality also expands into the digital realm. The youth, who should be protagonists of the future, find themselves in a system that values innovation and creativity very little. Instead of being prepared to face the challenges of a constantly changing world, they are molded to maintain the status quo, perpetuating a cycle of stagnation.

Here, it’s important to recall Foucault’s concepts about power and the “micro-powers” that sustain the system. Power, in educational institutions, is exercised subtly and pervasively, where established norms and regulations prevent any innovation that could break the cycle of mediocrity. Teachers who try to innovate are often silenced by control structures, maintaining the cycle of stagnation.

Corporate Environment: Flattery and Conformism on the Rise

The corporate world is not immune to the Circle of Mediocrity. Within many organizations, what should be a space for innovation, collaboration, and delivering concrete results turns into a stage for internal politics, where flattery is more valued than competence. Professionals who seek to stand out by delivering results are often overlooked in favor of those who know how to “navigate” the company’s internal political dynamics, avoiding conflicts and staying aligned with the superiors’ discourse.

This environment creates a paralyzing effect on companies, which, instead of innovating and seeking excellence, prefer to maintain the status quo. Ineffective processes continue to be perpetuated because challenging this structure would require courage—something the Circle of Mediocrity does not encourage. As a result, organizations lose competitiveness and stagnate, trapped in a culture of conformism that hinders growth and evolution.

The Emergence of the Circle of Mediocrity Concept

The concept of the Circle of Mediocrity emerged from my own observations over the years, especially in my work with digital communication and politics. In 2001, I began my first contacts with the job market and the political environment. By 2010, with more maturity, I actively participated in the campaign that propelled Cid Gomes’ candidacy for governor of Ceará. Later, as a professional within the government structure, I realized that something bigger was at play within institutions and power structures. The potential we saw in social networks and new forms of communication to transform public debate was often underestimated or, worse, viewed with suspicion by those who preferred to maintain the old ways of doing politics. In 2011, when I was responsible for creating the social networks for the Government of Ceará—encouraged by the Governor himself, something completely innovative in Brazil at the time—I heard more than once the phrase: “The internet, this social media thing, will never be relevant to politics.” Here, it’s important to acknowledge Cid Gomes’ ever-active propensity for proactivity, technology, and excellence—something that, while inspiring many, was seen by others as a threat to the status quo. It was then that the idea of the “castle-bound prince” syndrome emerged for me, but that’s a topic for another post.

My experience in government and many electoral campaigns showed me that attempts to innovate and break away from superficiality were often met with resistance. The Circle of Mediocrity became evident in every sphere we touched, and the idea that mediocrity was not only accepted but reinforced began to take shape. This cycle repeats in so many areas that it became impossible to ignore. The more I reflected on this, the more the concept solidified as a clear explanation for the stagnation I observed around me.

Mechanisms That Feed Mediocrity

The perpetuation of the Circle of Mediocrity is rooted in various social, psychological, and institutional mechanisms. One example is the Dunning-Kruger effect, a psychological phenomenon that explains how people with less competence tend to overestimate their abilities. This leads them to reject any form of innovation or change that could expose their limitations. In environments where these people occupy positions of power, the cycle of mediocrity perpetuates because changes that could improve the system are systematically avoided.

Additionally, there’s the phenomenon of institutional inertia, where bureaucracies and power structures continue to function the same way even when they’re clearly ineffective. Governments, companies, and organizations resist innovation because the process of change is seen as dangerous or disruptive to the balance of power relations. In this scenario, conformism and self-preservation prevail over competence and innovation. Foucault also helps us understand this dynamic through his concept of micro-powers: control doesn’t manifest only in grand actions or decisions but in how the everyday details of an organization control behavior and prevent disruptions.

The Circle of Mediocrity as Dynamic Conflict: Game Theory and Prospect Theory

The Circle of Mediocrity can also be understood through the lens of Game Theory and Prospect Theory. In Game Theory, the cycle is sustained as a dynamic conflict where the agents involved (leaders, professionals, institutions) make rational choices that perpetuate the status quo, even if these choices aren’t the most efficient. Negative cooperation, in this case, arises when all involved prefer to maintain a mediocre level of performance since changing the system implies risks and costs that no one wants to assume.

This dynamic can be analyzed based on concepts of equilibria with limited horizons, such as General Meta-Rationality (GMR)Symmetric Meta-Rationality (SMR), and Sequential Stability (SEQ). These concepts explain how, in conflict situations, agents may opt for decisions that, while rational for themselves, result in suboptimal solutions for the group as a whole. Often, the agent prefers to maintain the status quo, avoiding a globally better decision out of fear of individual consequences like punishments or suppression by opponents. In Sequential Equilibrium, for example, players base their decisions on expectations about the future behavior of their opponents and possible reactions to their actions. This means that even when aware of better available options, individuals and institutions hesitate to adopt them, perpetuating the Circle of Mediocrity. The central idea is that the decision to maintain stability, even if suboptimal, becomes a rational response in the face of fear of individual losses, which in turn creates a collective inertia that prevents innovation and keeps the system trapped in an unfavorable equilibrium for all.

Prospect Theory, by Kahneman and Tversky, helps us understand why people prefer to maintain the status quo even when change would be advantageous. The theory teaches us that individuals tend to value potential losses more than future gains, leading to risk aversion. In the context of the Circle of Mediocrity, this means agents prefer to cling to what they already know, even if it’s ineffective, rather than risk an innovation that could offer better results but also brings uncertainties.

These strategic choices, grounded in risk aversion and a tacit cooperation to maintain the cycle, feed the continuity of mediocrity. Thus, the Circle of Mediocrity can be seen as a suboptimal solution to a dynamic game where everyone loses in the long run, but no one wants to risk disruption in the short term.

The Relationship with the “Castle-Bound Prince Syndrome

The Circle of Mediocrity is closely linked to the Castle-Bound Prince Syndrome, a concept I developed to describe how leaders, isolated in their positions of power, end up receiving filtered and distorted information from advisors and intermediaries. This distance from reality creates a biased perspective on what’s truly happening “on the ground,” resulting in decisions based on incomplete or manipulated information. This perpetuates stagnation since the leader believes everything is under control or functioning as expected when, in reality, the cycle of mediocrity is active and growing.

When leaders are disconnected from reality due to this “syndrome,” they become incapable of recognizing the need to break the Circle of Mediocrity. Instead of seeking real solutions based on concrete data and innovation, they continue reinforcing the same practices that keep mediocrity at the center of decisions. For a more detailed analysis of how the Castle-Bound Prince Syndrome affects leadership and decision-making, check out my dedicated post on this topic [link to the post].

How to Break the Circle of Mediocrity

Breaking the Circle of Mediocrity is a task that requires courage and a willingness to challenge the status quo. First, it’s necessary to recognize that mediocrity is not inevitable. Institutions, organizations, and individuals can choose a different path—a path that values innovation, merit, and competence.

For this to happen, Game Theory shows us that incentives need to change so that all players involved in the system have something to gain by abandoning mediocrity. Negative cooperation, where agents prefer to maintain the status quo to avoid risks, needs to be replaced by incentives that reward those who challenge the cycle. This means creating a culture that values excellence, where innovation and the delivery of results are significantly rewarded.

Prospect Theory by Kahneman and Tversky teaches us that one of the most effective ways to overcome the risk aversion that maintains the cycle is to restructure rewards and consequences. By emphasizing the benefits of positive change instead of focusing on possible risks, we can create a new dynamic where innovation becomes more attractive than maintaining the vicious cycle.

Creating a culture that values excellence is fundamental. This involves changing incentives, both in the public and private sectors, so that people who stand out by delivering results and showcasing creativity are rewarded rather than marginalized. It’s also essential to invest in critical and digital education, empowering the next generations to be active agents of change and innovation.

Institutions need to make room for new ideas to flourish, even if those ideas challenge the status quo. Structures that reward conformism and superficiality must be questioned and reformed, with a real focus on transformation rather than merely maintaining the system.As instituições precisam abrir espaço para que novas ideias floresçam, mesmo que essas ideias desafiem o status quo. As estruturas que premiam o conformismo e a superficialidade devem ser questionadas e reformadas, com um foco real na transformação, e não na mera manutenção do sistema.

Conclusion

The Circle of Mediocrity is a real and dangerous phenomenon affecting various areas of contemporary society. It perpetuates stagnation and prevents institutions and individuals from reaching their full potential. However, this vicious cycle can be broken. To do so, it’s necessary to value competence, innovation, and excellence, creating spaces where mediocrity has no place. Transformation begins with awareness—and the courage to challenge the status quo. Recognizing that mediocrity is often protected by those who benefit from it is the first step toward making real changes. Only by exposing this dynamic and promoting a culture of excellence can we hope for our institutions, companies, and society as a whole to move toward a more innovative and efficient future.

Reflecting on the Circle of Mediocrity is not just a critique of the present but an invitation to rethink how our structures operate and how we can, together, break this cycle. If we want a more just, productive, and critical society, it’s essential to abandon conformism and mediocrity, and that starts with each of us—in our daily decisions and actions.


References

  • Debord, G. (1967). La Société du Spectacle. Paris: Buchet-Chastel.
  • Foucault, M. (1975). Surveiller et punir: Naissance de la prison. Paris: Gallimard.
  • Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
  • Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press.
  • Dunning, D., & Kruger, J. (1999). Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121-1134.
  • Simon, H. A. (1955). A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99-118.

Deoclécio Paiva de Castro

Ph.D student in Economics
M.Sc in Mathematical Optimization Modeling and Quantitative Methods
B.Sc in Industrial/Production Engineer